This is where the more technical special interest articles are kept. Please feel free to download and view at your leisure.

Contingency and collapse in credit default swap networks   Credit insurance via credit default swaps should theoretically improve market efficiency and lower the cost of capital by allowing credit risks to be shared by a wider market. In practice, apparent risk sharing led to a faster collapse: the subprime crisis and consequential credit crisis. By modelling the counterparty system as a two dimensional network, the matrix representation can be used to identify points of weakness for counterparty survival and hence the survival of principals who have bought credit protection. Useful analogies exist with input output economics and econometrics. Counterparty portfolios that are collinear or concentrated are an implicit exposure to apparently unrelated parties, predisposing the system to contagious collapse. Policy implications for credit rating agencies and regulators are explored.   Click Here To Download

An econometric theory of performance bureaucracy   Performance bureaucracies are organizational structures that arise in response to internally or externally derived metrics for mission or goal attainment, often associated with public sector accountability. Measurement and certification are key drivers of the internal political process. This becomes counterproductive when goal setting is exposed to hidden or latent variables reflecting incomplete information or coalface disaffection, so that managerial controls are metrically insufficient. An econometric framework is developed that draws on the semiotics in common use by performance oriented management regimes. Nash cooperative budget solutions among managers lead to overinvestment in measurement and control, the problem of the commons, and adverse performance outcomes.   Click Here To Download